
Toronto Blue Jays
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Baltimore Orioles
-130O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+110
(-110/-110)+110
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)In his previous start, Trey Yesavage was in good form and conceded 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)Jesus Sanchez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.8% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Brandon Young – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)Brandon Young has averaged 93.4 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Pete Alonso has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.7-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 95.1-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)Tyler Heineman has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
