
Detroit Tigers
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Chicago White Sox
-110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (55.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #7 HR venue among all stadiums — in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Jahmai Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)Jahmai Jones has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Anthony Kay – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Given his large platoon split, Anthony Kay meets a tough challenge being matched up with 7 bats in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Edgar Quero’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 90.6-mph figure last year has fallen to 86.3-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Anthony Kay – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Projected catcher Edgar Quero profiles as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (-110)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.60 Units / 61% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)Chase Meidroth has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+15.50 Units / 258% ROI)
