Expert Player Predictions for Blue Jays vs Yankees – Thursday, May 21, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

@

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Braydon Fisher – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Braydon Fisher to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Lenyn Sosa has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Carlos Rodon’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (60.8 vs. 51.6% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Paul Goldschmidt has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 101.1-mph average to last year’s 93.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Yankees projected lineup profiles as the best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.95 Units / 58% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.50 Units / 78% ROI)