Expert Player Predictions for Blue Jays vs Yankees – Thursday, May 21, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

@

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Braydon Fisher – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Braydon Fisher to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under Total Bases
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under Total Bases
  Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Carlos Rodon’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (60.8 vs. 51.6% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under Total Bases
  Paul Goldschmidt has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 101.1-mph average to last year’s 93.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-165)
  The New York Yankees projected lineup profiles as the best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.