Atlanta Braves
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Miami Marlins
-140O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+120
(-110/-110)+120
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)Over his previous 3 starts, Spencer Strider has put up a remarkable ERA of 2.45.Explain: A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)In terms of his batting average, Dominic Smith has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .299 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .252.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Atlanta Braves bats as a unit rank near the top of Major League Baseball this year (3rd-) as far as their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)Sandy Alcantara has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 8.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Jakob Marsee has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Owen Caissie – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Owen Caissie hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.