Examine the Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction and Team Stats Analysis - Sunday, May 31, 2026

+100O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-120

Jordan Wicks – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Compared to the average pitcher, Jordan Wicks has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -21.7 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Michael Busch is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
Dansby Swanson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Matthew Liberatore’s cutter utilization has decreased by 6.2% from last season to this one (10.6% to 4.4%) .
Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
From last season to this one, Masyn Winn’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.6 mph to 84.2 mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nelson Velazquez, Thomas Saggese, Pedro Pages).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+8.45 Units / 33% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+100)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.95 Units / 9% ROI)
Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 15% ROI)

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