
Detroit Tigers
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Tampa Bay Rays
+135O/U: 8
(-120/+100)-160
(-120/+100)-160
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Ty Madden – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ty Madden to be on a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Matt Vierling – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Matt Vierling’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 91.7-mph figure last season has fallen off to 89.2-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Detroit’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the game: #25 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Griffin Jax – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Griffin Jax will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Detroit (#3-worst of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+125)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+13.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)Wenceel Perez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+22.50 Units / 375% ROI)
