Discover the Game Location for Pirates vs Twins – Friday, July 11, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins host the Pittsburgh Pirates today in what marks the first game of their interleague series at Target Field. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Twins sitting at 45-48 and the Pirates at 38-56. After a tough loss yesterday where the Twins fell 8-1, they will look to bounce back against a Pirates team that also lost its last game, albeit by a closer 4-3 margin.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who is currently ranked 15th among pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics, showcasing his elite status. Ryan has had a solid season with an 8-4 record and an impressive ERA of 2.76. However, projections indicate he may be due for some regression. He typically averages 5.8 innings pitched and is expected to allow about 2.3 earned runs today. While he has a high strikeout rate of 28.6%, he also allows a concerning 4.9 hits per outing, putting him in a precarious position against the Pirates’ struggling offense.

Opposing Ryan will be Paul Skenes, who has been a standout for the Pirates this year, currently ranked as the 2nd best pitcher in MLB. With a 4-7 record and an excellent ERA of 1.94, Skenes has proven to be tough to hit, although his projections suggest a potential uptick in runs allowed as well. Both pitchers have shown propensity for strikeouts, with Skenes averaging 7.0 per game.

Despite their offensive struggles, the Twins are favored in this matchup with a low implied team total of 3.75 runs. With the Pirates ranked 29th in overall offense and 30th in home runs, the Twins could leverage their higher batting talent to turn things around, especially if they can exploit Skenes’ tendency to issue walks, as he averages 1.5 per game. As both teams vie for a much-needed win, expect a competitive atmosphere at Target Field.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Because groundball batters hold a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, Paul Skenes and his 47.5% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today’s matchup going up against 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Tommy Pham is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Joe Ryan’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (63 vs. 54.4% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Christian Vazquez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.5-mph mark last year has lowered to 86.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 17° mark is among the highest in baseball this year (#2 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 34% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 44 away games (+17.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+195/-265)
  Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)