D-Backs vs Cubs Picks and Betting Trends - 5/03/2026

+130O/U: 11.5
(-115/-105)-150

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
Placing in the 4th percentile, Merrill Kelly has put up a 1.5 K/BB rate since the start of last season.
Explain: K/BB rate is one of the best measures of a pitcher’s effectiveness in a given season, regardless of his ERA (which is prone to extreme randomness and luck).
Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Extreme flyball hitters like Ildemaro Vargas are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Boyd.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
Matthew Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Moises Ballesteros – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-220)
Moises Ballesteros has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.10 Units / 24% ROI)
Moises Ballesteros – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
Moises Ballesteros has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.65 Units / 38% ROI)

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