Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Pirates vs Nationals - July 04, 2026

-155O/U: 10.5
(-110/-110)+135

Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Braxton Ashcraft has averaged 18.1 outs per GS this year, placing in the 93rd percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-220)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Pittsburgh Pirates in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .317, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Zack Littell has utilized his slider 5.3% more often this season (38.2%) than he did last season (32.9%).
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Dylan Crews is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+9.30 Units / 33% ROI)
Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+13.30 Units / 35% ROI)
Jose Tena – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
Jose Tena has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics