Check the Injuries Update for Padres vs Nationals – 7/23/2024

San Diego Padres

@

Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will host the San Diego Padres at Nationals Park on July 23, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Nationals, who hold a 47-53 record, are having a below-average season. Conversely, the Padres, with a 52-50 record, are experiencing an average season. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

Washington is projected to start left-hander DJ Herz, who has had a challenging season with a 5.17 ERA and a 1-3 record over seven starts. However, his 3.44 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and might perform better going forward. Herz will face a Padres offense that ranks 11th in MLB, buoyed by their 2nd-ranked team batting average. The Nationals’ offense, on the other hand, is struggling, ranking 26th overall, though they do boast the 3rd-most stolen bases in MLB.

San Diego will counter with right-hander Randy Vasquez, who has a 4.57 ERA and a 2-5 record over 13 starts. Vasquez’s 6.28 xERA indicates he has been fortunate this season and might regress. The Nationals’ offense, which ranks 17th in team batting average but 29th in home runs, might find some opportunities against Vasquez.

Both teams are coming off close wins; the Nationals defeated the Reds 5-2 on July 21, while the Padres edged out the Guardians 2-1. The betting markets reflect the expected tight competition, with both teams having a moneyline of -110, indicating an implied win probability of 50%.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Padres a slight edge with a 51% win probability. The projections also suggest the Padres will score an average of 4.85 runs compared to the Nationals’ 4.52 runs. Given the Nationals’ below-average bullpen, ranked 29th, and the Padres’ more reliable bullpen, ranked 12th, the Padres might have the upper hand in what is anticipated to be a close contest.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-105)
  Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Ha-Seong Kim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Ha-seong Kim has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 5.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Washington Nationals Insights

• DJ Herz – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  DJ Herz has averaged 13.4 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 6th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  CJ Abrams’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 88.5-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 81.2-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 97 games (+9.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.35 Units / 80% ROI)