Check the Injuries Update for Brewers vs Nationals – 8/2/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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Washington Nationals

As the Milwaukee Brewers visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals on August 2, 2024, the stakes are clear: the Brewers are looking to capitalize on their strong season, while the Nationals continue to struggle. Currently, the Brewers hold a record of 61-47 and rank 2nd in the National League Central, positioning themselves as a competitive force. Meanwhile, the Nationals sit at 49-60, reflecting a difficult season that’s seen them significantly underperform.

In their last outing, the Brewers faced the Atlanta Braves and suffered a loss, while the Nationals fell to the Arizona Diamondbacks by a narrow 5-4 margin. Despite the setbacks, the Brewers’ solid performance earlier in the season, coupled with their current offensive ranking as the 11th best in MLB, bodes well for today’s matchup.

Starting for the Nationals is Jake Irvin, who has shown flashes of brilliance this season, posting a commendable ERA of 3.44. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for some regression. In contrast, Frankie Montas, projected to start for the Brewers, has struggled with a 5.01 ERA, which raises questions about his ability to navigate the Nationals’ lineup effectively.

The projections favor the Brewers, emphasizing their superior offensive capabilities, especially considering their 5th rank in team batting average. With a high implied team total of 4.55 runs, the Brewers appear poised to exploit Irvin’s vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ offense, although ranking 18th in batting average, has the potential to surprise, particularly with CJ Abrams leading the charge.

With the game total set high at 9.0 runs, both teams will need to find ways to exploit their respective strengths. While the Brewers are favored, the Nationals have shown they can compete, making this matchup one to watch as they aim to turn their season around.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Frankie Montas has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Sal Frelick has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84-mph dropping to 79.6-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  In his previous game started, Jake Irvin turned in a great performance and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Despite posting a .394 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Juan Yepez has been lucky given the .091 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .303.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 103 games (+10.05 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 100 games (+10.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-105/-125)
  Jake Irvin has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.65 Units / 36% ROI)