
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Chicago White Sox
-205O/U: 8
(-115/-105)+175
(-115/-105)+175
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s four-seam fastball percentage has decreased by 8.7% from last season to this one (35.7% to 27%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)Kyle Tucker is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Sean Burke’s 2556-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 96th percentile among all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Tristan Peters – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Tristan Peters’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 86.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 83.1-mph over the past two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.7% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
