Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
(-105/-115)-145
On May 13, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Tampa Bay Rays in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams find themselves under .500, with the Blue Jays holding a record of 20-20, while the Rays sit at 18-22. This American League East matchup is crucial for both squads seeking to gain momentum as the season progresses.
In their last outings, the Blue Jays came off a strong victory, defeating their previous opponent 9-1, showcasing a resurgence in their offense. Meanwhile, the Rays fell to their rivals, losing 4-2. Notably, the Blue Jays are projected to send Jose Berrios to the mound, while the Rays will counter with Shane Baz.
Berrios has had a somewhat uneven season, highlighted by a 3.86 ERA but a concerning 4.76 FIP, suggesting he may not sustain this level of performance. He is coming off a rough start on May 7 where he allowed 5 walks but only 2 earned runs, indicating some inconsistency. On the other hand, Baz has been better overall, boasting a 4.93 ERA yet displaying signs of potential improvement with a 4.02 xFIP that indicates he has been unlucky this season.
From an offensive perspective, the Blue Jays rank 16th in MLB, and their best hitter is currently on fire, recording a stellar .444 batting average over the past week. This contrasts with the Rays’ offensive struggles, as they rank 23rd in the league. Complicating matters for Tampa Bay, their power output has been disappointing, ranking 26th in home runs.
As the Blue Jays aim to strengthen their standing in the division and continue building on their recent success, they come into this matchup as betting favorites with a moneyline of -145. In a game where pitching and timely hitting will be key, it’ll be intriguing to see if Toronto can leverage their recent form and home-field advantage against a Rays team struggling to find consistency.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)Shane Baz is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Kameron Misner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Kameron Misner’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 88-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 79.9-mph over the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Tampa Bay Rays bats collectively grade out 26th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 7.2% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)This season, Jose Berrios has introduced a new pitch to his pitch mix (a slider), throwing it on 27.3% of his pitches.Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Typically, bats like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Shane Baz.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+130/-170)Shane Baz has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 39% ROI)