Brewers vs Red Sox Betting Guide – 4/07/26

Milwaukee Brewers

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Boston Red Sox

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Jacob Misiorowski has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Brandon Lockridge is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Luis Matos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Luis Matos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Garrett Crochet’s sinker percentage has increased by 6.1% from last year to this one (15.9% to 22%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+850/-2300)
  Ceddanne Rafaela’s footspeed has decreased this year. His 29.12 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.31 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Boston Red Sox offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 away games (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+165/-220)
  Gary Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)