Athletics vs Yankees Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Tuesday, April 07, 2026

Athletics

@

New York Yankees

Athletics Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all SPs, Aaron Civale’s fastball spin rate of 2435.8 rpm grades out in the 84th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Jacob Wilson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.7-mph average to last year’s 84.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  In today’s game, Lawrence Butler is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.4% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Cameron Schlittler will wring up 6.3 strikeouts in this outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  As it relates to his batting average, Giancarlo Stanton has been lucky since the start of last season. His .287 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .210.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-260)
  The New York Yankees projected lineup projects as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-255)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.80 Units / 52% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 37% ROI)