
Detroit Tigers
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Minnesota Twins
-150O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+130
(-110/-110)+130
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Framber Valdez’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (51.1 compared to 45.4% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Riley Greene has struggled with his Barrel%; his 17.3% rate last year has fallen to 9.7% this season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The 9.6% Barrel% of the Detroit Tigers makes them the #7 club in MLB since the start of last season by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Bailey Ober – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Among all SPs, Bailey Ober’s fastball velocity of 89.6 mph ranks in the 6th percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Byron Buxton’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 96.9-mph average last season has decreased to 90-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Victor Caratini hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 18 games (+4.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 away games (+5.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Austin Martin – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+140/-180)Austin Martin has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 20 games at home (+8.40 Units / 42% ROI)
