Betting Trends for Pirates vs Nationals Game – 7/3/26

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Washington Nationals

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Mitch Keller has relied on his slider 7.1% less often this season (25.9%) than he did last season (33%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Esmerlyn Valdez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a unit rank 10th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 8.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Foster Griffin – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Out of all SPs, Foster Griffin’s fastball velocity of 87.5 mph is in the 1st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jorbit Vivas – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jorbit Vivas has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.3-mph dropping to 76-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 37% ROI)