Twins vs Yankees Bets and Betting Trends – 7/03/26

Minnesota Twins

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New York Yankees

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Mike Paredes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Mike Paredes’s 2135-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 14th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Brooks Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Minnesota Twins in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .307, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .320 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Gerrit Cole is projected to average 16.5 outs in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Paul Goldschmidt’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 86.8-mph seasonal average has lowered to 81.9-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 46% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 away games (+13.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Luke Keaschall has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.55 Units / 122% ROI)