Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Blue Jays vs Yankees Saturday, August 22, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

@

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Dylan Cease has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  Ernie Clement’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 84.5-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 81-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  With 8 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Ryan Weathers will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Austin Wells has been unlucky this year, putting up a .253 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .297 — a .044 gap.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Luis García Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Luis Garcia Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Spencer Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+195/-260)
  Spencer Jones has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.40 Units / 38% ROI)