Game Highlights for Athletics vs Phillies – July 13, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Philadelphia Phillies

After a surprising loss to the Oakland Athletics on July 12, the Philadelphia Phillies look to bounce back in the second game of their series at Citizens Bank Park on July 13, 2024. The Phillies, boasting a stellar 61-33 record, are having a tremendous season and currently sit comfortably in playoff contention. On the other hand, the Athletics, with a dismal 36-60 record, are enduring a rough year.

The Phillies’ potent offense, ranked 3rd in MLB, will be a critical factor in tonight’s matchup. They lead the league in team batting average and rank 4th in stolen bases, making them a dynamic threat on the basepaths. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia’s standout hitter, has been sensational with a .300 batting average, 20 home runs, and a .967 OPS this season. Brandon Marsh has also been impressive over the last week, hitting .333 with a 1.233 OPS.

Tyler Phillips will take the mound for the Phillies, making his first start of the season. Despite his lack of starting experience, his 2.25 ERA and 1.14 xFIP suggest he has been unlucky and might outperform expectations. Phillips’ high strikeout rate (46.7 K%) could exploit the Athletics’ high-strikeout offense, providing a potential edge for Philadelphia.

Oakland’s offense, ranked 27th in MLB, struggles in most aspects except for home runs, where they rank 7th. Brent Rooker has been a bright spot, hitting .281 with 18 home runs and a .897 OPS. Over the last week, Rooker has been on fire, hitting .429 with a 1.185 OPS.

The Athletics will counter with Mitch Spence, who has transitioned from the bullpen to start. Spence’s 4.29 ERA suggests he has been average, but his 3.73 FIP indicates some bad luck. Despite his control issues, Spence faces a Phillies lineup known for drawing walks, which might mitigate one of Philadelphia’s strengths.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Phillies to score 5.14 runs, a very high projection, while the Athletics are projected to score 4.52 runs. The Phillies are favored with a 59% win probability, suggesting value in betting on Oakland given their implied win probability of 37%.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Mitch Spence must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 86.2% of the time, grading out in the 99th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Lawrence Butler is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Oakland’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the game: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Kyle Schwarber has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.4-mph to 96-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Brandon Marsh has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 78 games (+20.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+8.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)