Top Player Prop Picks for Cubs vs D-Backs - August 26, 2026

-120O/U: 8.5
(+100/-120)+100

Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
Generating 17.1 outs per start this year on average, Matthew Boyd places in the 79th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Michael Busch is apt to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Eduardo Rodriguez has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.6% more often this season (52.1%) than he did last season (44.5%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Ryan Waldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
Ryan Waldschmidt is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#1-best of the day).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Tim Tawa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
Today, Tim Tawa is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+5.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+16.10 Units / 31% ROI)
Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+9.60 Units / 63% ROI)

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