Top Player Prop Picks for Cubs vs D-Backs – August 26, 2026

Chicago Cubs

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Generating 17.1 outs per start this year on average, Matthew Boyd places in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Michael Busch is apt to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Eduardo Rodriguez has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.6% more often this season (52.1%) than he did last season (44.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ryan Waldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Ryan Waldschmidt is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tim Tawa – Over/Under Total Bases
  Today, Tim Tawa is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.