See the Cubs vs D-Backs Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Thursday March 27th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Chicago Cubs on March 27, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Diamondbacks enter this game with the best offense in MLB, ranking 1st in team batting average and 5th in home runs, while the Cubs are struggling, currently sitting at 0-2 this season and coming off a loss to the Diamondbacks by a score of 6-3.

Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound for Arizona. His recent performance has been noteworthy, as he pitched 6 innings with only 1 earned run and 11 strikeouts in his last outing on September 25, 2024. Gallen, ranked 38th among MLB starting pitchers, is a right-hander who projects to allow 2.2 earned runs today, which is above average. However, he also has a concerning projection of 4.7 hits allowed, which could give the Cubs a glimmer of hope.

On the other side, Justin Steele is set to start for Chicago. Although he is ranked 15th among starting pitchers, his current season has been rocky, with an ERA of 11.25 and a 0-1 record. Steele’s projections indicate he could allow 2.3 earned runs and 5.4 hits, which may not bode well against a powerful Diamondbacks lineup. Notably, Steele’s high-flyball tendency could be exploited by the Diamondbacks’ power hitters, who have already racked up 211 home runs this season.

With the Diamondbacks’ potent offense and Gallen’s recent form, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. The current moneyline reflects a close contest, with Arizona favored at -130, but given their offensive prowess and Gallen’s ability to limit damage, they seem poised to capitalize on the Cubs’ early-season struggles.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Tucker in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Zac Gallen to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Randal Grichuk hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 110 games (+27.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 away games (+10.50 Units / 42% ROI)
• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-185/+140)
  Zac Gallen has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+4.10 Units / 32% ROI)