Discover the Braves vs Padres Preview and Prediction – Thursday March 27, 2025

Atlanta Braves

@

San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on March 27, 2025, both teams are looking to establish an early advantage in this three-game series. The Padres currently hold a solid position in the standings, ranking among the top contenders in the National League, while the Braves sit in a more precarious spot.

In their last outing, the Padres’ offense continued to showcase its prowess, ranking 6th in MLB, bolstered by a 2nd-best batting average. However, the Braves, sitting at 12th overall, possess a powerful lineup that ranks 4th in home runs, making this matchup intriguing. The Padres will send Michael King to the mound, who is looking to bounce back after a rough last start on October 8, 2024, where he gave up 5 earned runs over 5 innings. Despite being ranked 24th among starting pitchers, projections suggest that he may allow only 1.9 earned runs today, which is a promising indicator.

On the other hand, the Braves will counter with Chris Sale, an elite pitcher ranked 9th in the league. Sale has been performing well recently, with his last start on September 19, 2024, resulting in 2 earned runs over 5 innings, demonstrating his ability to limit damage. Projections indicate he could strike out 6 batters today, a key factor against a Padres offense that is known to capitalize on mistakes.

Given the current odds, the Padres’ moneyline sits at +110, reflecting a close contest, while the Braves are favored at -130. Despite the odds, the Padres’ strong offensive capabilities and a good bullpen ranked 5th in MLB could give them an edge, making this an exciting matchup to watch. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, underscoring the tight nature of this battle on the diamond.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under Total Bases
  As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Jurickson Profar will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side against Michael King in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-120)
  The Atlanta Braves projected batting order ranks as the 5th-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Michael King to be on a bit of a short leash in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 66 games (+16.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+105/-125)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 138 games (+31.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+440/-700)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+10.95 Units / 137% ROI)