Giants vs Reds Game Highlights – Thursday, March 27, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off against the San Francisco Giants on March 27, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in what is expected to be a closely contested matchup. The Reds currently sit in the middle of the pack in the National League, while the Giants are also battling for positioning, making this game significant in the grand scheme of the season.

In their last outing, the Giants showcased their pitching prowess, with Logan Webb delivering a stellar performance, going 6 innings without allowing any earned runs. This kind of form is crucial as he takes the mound again, projected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow an average of just 2.2 earned runs, according to projections. Webb ranks as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB, a testament to his elite status.

On the other hand, Hunter Greene is set to start for the Reds. While he ranks 50th among starting pitchers, he has shown flashes of potential, projecting to strike out 6.5 batters per game. However, his tendency to allow 3.8 hits and 2.0 walks could be problematic against a Giants lineup that, while average, has the tools to capitalize on mistakes.

Offensively, the Reds rank 20th in the league, struggling with a team batting average that sits at 26th. Conversely, the Giants are slightly better, ranking 19th overall but facing challenges in generating runs. With both teams having low implied totals of 3.75 runs, expect a tight game with strong pitching likely dominating the narrative. With the Reds’ bullpen sitting at 19th and the Giants’ at 4th, the late innings could be pivotal. This matchup promises to be a showcase of pitching talent and strategic gameplay, keeping fans on the edge of their seats.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Typically, batters like Wilmer Flores who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Hunter Greene.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Jeimer Candelario will bat from his bad side against Logan Webb in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 86 of their last 147 games (+17.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 63 away games (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• LaMonte Wade Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+155/-200)
  LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.50 Units / 24% ROI)