Odds and Betting Trends for Dodgers vs Rockies – 9/28/24

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Colorado Rockies

The Los Angeles Dodgers continue their strong season, taking on the Colorado Rockies in the second game of their series on September 28, 2024. The Dodgers are locked in for the playoffs, boasting a 96-64 record, while the Rockies have struggled to a 61-99 mark. The Dodgers are favorites in this National League West encounter, having triumphed over the Rockies in their previous matchup.

On the mound, Colorado starts Antonio Senzatela, who has shown a respectable 3.38 ERA in his limited appearances but is flagged by a 5.37 xFIP, indicating luck has been on his side. In contrast, the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto is set to start with a stellar 2.96 ERA, showcasing his elite status as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB Power Rankings. Despite projections showing Senzatela likely to allow significant damage, Yamamoto’s strikeout potential should be a critical factor against a Rockies lineup that struggles with strikeouts.

Offensively, the Dodgers’ bats have been among the game’s best, ranking 2nd in overall offense and home runs. Shohei Ohtani has been particularly impressive recently, boasting a .625 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ offense is around league average, with Charlie Blackmon as their standout performer in the past seven days, hitting .400.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rockies might find some value as underdogs, projected at a 6% higher win probability than betting markets suggest. With a high Game Total of 11.0 runs, expect fireworks at Coors Field, even if the Rockies face an uphill battle against a dominant Dodgers squad.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2228 rpm) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (2156 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Muncy stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in the game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Antonio Senzatela is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Ezequiel Tovar has experienced some positive variance this year. His .319 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .279.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Compared to their .333 overall projected rate, the .299 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup significantly missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+225)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 70 games at home (+7.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 98 games (+20.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+9.30 Units / 22% ROI)