Player Analysis for Reds vs Guardians – September 24, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians are set to host the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field on September 24, 2024, in an interleague matchup with contrasting stakes. The Guardians are enjoying a strong season with a 90-67### record and firmly in playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Reds are navigating a below-average season at 76-81###.

Tanner Bibee takes the mound for the Guardians, bringing a solid season with an 11-8### record and a respectable 3.56### ERA. Bibee is ranked as the 43rd best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced Power Rankings. Conversely, Reds’ starter Jakob Junis, despite sporting a 4-0### record and an excellent 2.61### ERA, is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league by the same rankings. His xFIP of 3.89 suggests he’s been fortunate this season and could regress.

Offensively, the Guardians are slightly above average, with their offense ranking 17th overall. Despite a subpar 20th ranking in batting average, they excel in power rankings, holding the 12th spot in home runs and 5th in stolen bases. On the other side, the Reds’ offense, ranked 16th, struggles in batting average, sitting 26th. They are, however, a threat on the basepaths, ranking 2nd in stolen bases.

The Guardians’ bullpen, ranked 6th, contrasts sharply with the Reds’ bullpen, positioned at 26th. This could be a decisive factor in today’s game, as both starters are projected to average fewer than six innings. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Cleveland holds a 64% win probability, exceeding their implied probability, making them an appealing pick for bettors. The Guardians are projected to score 5.08 runs on average, underscoring their status as favorites in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Jakob Junis – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jakob Junis in today’s game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Jake Fraley has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.8-mph dropping to 73.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Cincinnati Reds offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Over his previous 3 outings, Tanner Bibee has suffered a big decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2363 rpm over the whole season to 2278 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.0) implies that Josh Naylor has experienced some positive variance this year with his 30.1 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-160)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 71 games at home (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under Team Total
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 126 games (+10.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+7.15 Units / 18% ROI)