Game Forecast: Cubs vs Rockies Head-to-Head Analysis Thursday June 11th, 2026

Chicago Cubs

@

Colorado Rockies

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Throwing 92.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Edward Cabrera ranks in the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+135/-180)
  Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs offense projects for the most runs on the slate, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ryan Feltner – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Ryan Feltner’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (61.5% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• T.J. Rumfield – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  T.J. Rumfield has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.3-mph dropping to 81.8-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .301 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.