Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Dodgers vs Pirates – Thursday, June 11, 2026

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Among all starters, Justin Wrobleski’s fastball spin rate of 2436 rpm is in the 83rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Max Muncy has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last season’s 95-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Freddie Freeman has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Mitch Keller will record an average of 3.45 earned runs in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rafael Flores, Esmerlyn Valdez, Brandon Lowe).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-130)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 away games (+6.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 37% ROI)