Get Tickets Information for D-Backs vs Brewers – 9/22/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field on September 22, 2024, for the fourth game of their series. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Brewers holding an 88-67 record and the Diamondbacks at 87-68. As National League playoff aspirations loom large, these two squads are neck-and-neck in the standings, making this game critical for potential postseason positioning.

Milwaukee sends Frankie Montas to the mound, a right-hander who has been average this season, as reflected by his 4.50 ERA and a Power Ranking of #93 among MLB starting pitchers. Montas, with a 7-11 record, is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs on average. He’ll face a Diamondbacks offense that ranks as the 1st best in MLB, showcasing their prowess with the 2nd best team batting average and ranking 5th in home runs. Montas’s control will be tested by Arizona’s patient approach, as they rank 5th in drawing walks.

The Diamondbacks counter with Jordan Montgomery, a lefty who has struggled with a 6.23 ERA this year. Despite his high ERA, his xFIP of 4.74 suggests some unluckiness, indicating potential for better performance. Montgomery faces a Brewers lineup that ranks as the 9th best offense, featuring strong base-running capabilities with the 3rd most stolen bases in MLB.

The Brewers boast a slight edge in projections, with a 53% win probability according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Their offense is projected to score 4.58 runs, while the Diamondbacks are projected to tally 4.48 runs. Milwaukee’s bullpen, ranked 16th, will need to hold steady against Arizona’s top-ranked relief corps to secure a win in this pivotal matchup. The betting markets expect a tightly contested game, with Milwaukee’s moneyline at -120, reflecting their slight favoritism.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Jordan Montgomery – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Jordan Montgomery’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.5-mph decline from last year’s 92.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Milwaukee’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Frankie Montas has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 4.5 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 151 games (+9.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 76 games (+26.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+170/-225)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 49 games (+19.20 Units / 39% ROI)