Learn About Yankees vs Athletics Picks and Betting Trends – Friday September 20, 2024

New York Yankees

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Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics are set to host the New York Yankees at the Oakland Coliseum on September 20, 2024, in an American League matchup. The Athletics, with a struggling 67-86 record, have been eliminated from division contention, while the Yankees, boasting an impressive 89-64 record, are having a strong season and are in the hunt for playoff positioning.

In their last outings, the Athletics pulled off an upset against the Cubs with a 5-3 victory on September 18, defying their underdog status. Meanwhile, the Yankees fell short in a tight 3-2 loss to the Mariners, despite entering the game as slight favorites.

The pitching matchup features J.T. Ginn for the Athletics and Gerrit Cole for the Yankees. Ginn, ranked 175th among approximately 350 pitchers, has had a tough season with a 4.94 ERA and a 0-1 record. However, his 3.84 xFIP suggests some bad luck, indicating potential for improvement. On the other hand, Cole, ranked 31st, has been solid with a 3.97 ERA and a 6-5 record, despite a rough last outing where he allowed seven earned runs in four innings.

Offensively, the Yankees have a distinct advantage, ranking 3rd in MLB, highlighted by their 1st place standing in home runs. Aaron Judge has been a standout performer, hitting .321 with 53 home runs and 136 RBIs. The Athletics’ offense, while average overall at 17th, excels in power with a 7th place ranking in home runs. Brent Rooker, their top hitter, has been hot lately, boasting a .417 average over the last week.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are favored with a 61% win probability, while the Athletics are projected at 39%. Despite being underdogs, the Athletics’ recent victory and home run potential offer intriguing dynamics for this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-195)
  Among every team in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Anthony Volpe is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-195)
  The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Because groundball batters hold a big advantage over flyball pitchers, J.T. Ginn and his 49% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in today’s game going up against 1 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Brent Rooker has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Oakland’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the game: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+165)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 91 games (+13.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Zack Gelof – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Zack Gelof has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.40 Units / 48% ROI)