Betting Guide and Odds for Blue Jays vs Rays – Friday September 20, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off at Tropicana Field on September 20, 2024, these American League East rivals find themselves in a heated, though largely ceremonial, matchup. Both teams are having lackluster seasons by their standards, with the Rays holding a 75-78 record, considered average, while the Blue Jays lag behind at 73-80, marking a below-average campaign. Despite both teams being out of serious playoff contention, this game sets the stage for bragging rights in the division.

The Rays have Tyler Alexander on the mound. Alexander’s performance this season has been underwhelming, with a 5.58 ERA, making him one of the lower-ranked starters in MLB. However, his 4.73 xFIP suggests a hint of bad luck, indicating potential for better outcomes. The Rays’ strength lies in their bullpen, ranked 3rd best, which could be a pivotal factor if Alexander falters early.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will start Jose Berrios, who boasts a solid 3.44 ERA this season. However, his xFIP of 4.27 hints at some fortunate breaks, suggesting he may not be as dominant as his ERA implies. The Blue Jays’ bullpen, ranked 23rd, stands in stark contrast to the Rays’, potentially leaving them vulnerable in the later innings.

Offensively, the Rays have struggled, ranking 26th in overall offense and 27th in both batting average and home runs, relying more on speed as they rank 4th in stolen bases. The Blue Jays’ offense is middling, with a 15th-place ranking, but presents slightly more balance than their adversaries.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives a slight edge to the Blue Jays, projecting a 51% win probability. With both starters having vulnerabilities to exploit and the stakes being low, this game could turn into a showcase for late-season experimentation and pride.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)
  Compared to the average hurler, Jose Berrios has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 3.0 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Alexander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Addison Barger, Davis Schneider, Joey Loperfido).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tyler Alexander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Alexander in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Dylan Carlson – Over/Under Hits
  Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 89 of their last 149 games (+24.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 56 away games (+12.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Leonardo Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Leonardo Jimenez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+6.60 Units / 108% ROI)