Dodgers vs Phillies Picks and Odds – (July 11, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 11, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park for the third game in their series. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 60-32 record and the Dodgers at 55-38. The Phillies edged out a 4-3 victory over the Dodgers yesterday, securing their spot as favorites for today’s matchup.

Philadelphia will send Aaron Nola to the mound, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Nola, with a 10-4 record and a solid 3.48 ERA, has been one of the key contributors to the Phillies’ success this season. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs while striking out 6.3 batters on average today. However, his 5.6 BB% indicates he seldom issues free passes, which might be crucial against the Dodgers’ patient lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for drawing walks.

On the other hand, the Dodgers will start Anthony Banda, a left-hander who has mostly been used out of the bullpen this season. Despite his impressive 2.08 ERA, Banda’s underlying metrics, such as a 4.75 xFIP, suggest he has been fortunate and might regress. He projects to pitch just 3.4 innings today, allowing 2.2 earned runs. Banda’s high walk rate (12.9 BB%) could spell trouble against the Phillies, who rank 5th in walks.

Offensively, both teams boast strong lineups. The Dodgers’ offense is ranked 1st overall, featuring Shohei Ohtani, who has a .317 batting average and a 1.037 OPS. The Phillies are not far behind, ranked 4th, with Bryce Harper leading the charge with a .299 batting average and a .968 OPS. Over the last week, Trea Turner has been on fire for Philadelphia, hitting .375 with a 1.150 OPS.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, today’s matchup promises to be an exciting contest. The Phillies, favored with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%, look to continue their strong season. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection …

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  There has been a decrease in Miguel Rojas’s average exit velocity this season, from 87.3 mph last year to 84.8 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Aaron Nola has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, putting up an 8.47 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.70 — a 1.23 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Bats such as Johan Rojas with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Anthony Banda who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Brandon Marsh has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 78 games (+21.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 away games (+4.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+12.45 Units / 79% ROI)