Orioles vs Blue Jays Picks and Betting Tips – September 12th, 2026

Baltimore Orioles

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Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Kyle Bradish’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (53.4% this year) is likely weakening his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Gunnar Henderson’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 89.2-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 79.4-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Carlos Narvaez, Coby Mayo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Among all SPs, Spencer Arrighetti’s fastball velocity of 91.7 mph is in the 21st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s true offensive talent to be a .363, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .063 deviation between that mark and his actual .300 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-140)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 away games (+9.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+11.40 Units / 114% ROI)