Uncover the Game Forecast: Pirates vs Cubs Match Preview - 9/12/26

+110O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-130

Paul Skenes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this year (96.2 mph) below where it was last season (97.5 mph).
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Bryan Reynolds has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 96.2-mph over the last two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.4% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
Given that flyball pitchers have a notable edge over flyball batters, Clay Holmes and his 55.2% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in today’s outing being matched up with 2 opposing FB batters.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pete Crow-Armstrong’s true offensive skill to be a .349, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .049 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .398 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Chicago Cubs in this game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .324, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .335 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.55 Units / 42% ROI)

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