Read Athletics vs Royals Picks and Betting Odds - Thursday August 20, 2026

+120O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-140

Gage Jump – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gage Jump to throw 85 pitches in this game (3rd-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Donovan Walton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
The Kansas City Royals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Donovan Walton has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Athletics – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
Randy Dobnak has been lucky this year, notching a 1.73 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.99 — a 3.26 gap.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under Total Bases
Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 91st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

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