Match Preview: Marlins vs Mets Game Forecast and Analysis – Friday, July 31, 2026

Miami Marlins

@

New York Mets

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Janson Junk performed well in his previous GS and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Miami Marlins hitters as a unit rank 26th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 6.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 11.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Kodai Senga has recorded 11.9 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 3rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Carson Benge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.0 (+125)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+9.25 Units / 46% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 37% ROI)