
Milwaukee Brewers
@

San Francisco Giants
-140O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+115
(-110/-110)+115
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Jake Bauers has been lucky this year, compiling a .364 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .035 discrepancy.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Milwaukee Brewers batters collectively have been among the best in baseball this year (7th-) as far as their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Tyler Mahle projects to strikeout an average of 4.9 batters in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Willy Adames has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Heliot Ramos has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Run Line +1.5 (-140)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+5.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+180/-240)Casey Schmitt has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+8.25 Units / 19% ROI)
