Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Phillies vs Marlins - Tuesday, July 28, 2026

+115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-135

Aaron Nola – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Aaron Nola is projected to average 1.9 walks in today’s outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
Bryson Stott is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Bryson Stott hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Sandy Alcantara’s curveball rate has decreased by 15.7% from last season to this one (18% to 2.3%) .
Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
This season, Kyle Stowers has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98 mph compared to last year’s 96 mph mark.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heriberto Hernandez, Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+7.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 41% ROI)

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