See the Updated Player Rankings for Giants vs Royals - July 22, 2026

-135O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)+115

Landen Roupp – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Landen Roupp’s 92.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 18th percentile out of all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Bryce Eldridge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
Bryce Eldridge has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 92.5-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Heliot Ramos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 4th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Seth Lugo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Seth Lugo has averaged 91.9 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 79th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Typically, hitters like Starling Marte who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Landen Roupp.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Compared to their .326 overall projected rate, the .309 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Kansas City Royals projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal missing some of their usual firepower.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 25% ROI)
San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.25 Units / 20% ROI)
Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 20 games at home (+17.05 Units / 47% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics