Find Mets vs Brewers Value Bets and Betting Line - Wednesday July 22nd, 2026

+135O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-155

Christian Scott – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Christian Scott has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 10.86 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.63 — a 1.23 K/9 deviation.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Jared Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
Jared Young is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
New York Mets hitters jointly have been one of the best in the league this year (6th-) when assessing their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-155)
Among every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
Jackson Chourio has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.9-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 92.2-mph mark.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-155)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+5.90 Units / 10% ROI)
New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+125/-160)
Jake Bauers has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 83% ROI)

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