
Tampa Bay Rays
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Boston Red Sox
+105O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)-125
(-105/-115)-125
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+105)The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Boston (#1-best on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Tampa Bay Rays hitters collectively rank 30th- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 5.9% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Sonny Gray is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least on the slate.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)Jarren Duran has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Romy Gonzalez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+13.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+18.30 Units / 55% ROI)
