
Miami Marlins
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Milwaukee Brewers
+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-130
(-110/-110)-130
Miami Marlins Insights
- Eury Perez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Eury Perez has used his four-seamer 7.2% less often this year (44.3%) than he did last year (51.5%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Extreme groundball hitters like Xavier Edwards generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Robert Gasser.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Kyle Stowers pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 81st percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)The Milwaukee Brewers infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Christian Yelich has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 6th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the futureExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
