Watch the Game Highlights for Mets vs Phillies – Sunday, July 19, 2026

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan McLean in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme groundball batters like Jorge Polanco are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Alan Rangel.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Carson Benge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Carson Benge has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Alan Rangel was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and allowed 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Over the last 14 days, Bryce Harper’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 40% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 45% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+190/-255)
  Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games at home (+9.35 Units / 37% ROI)