Find the Official Lineup for Brewers vs Pirates – 7/11/2026

Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Among all starting pitchers, Shane Drohan’s fastball spin rate of 2427 rpm grades out in the 83rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under Total Bases
  Garrett Mitchell has been lucky this year, posting a .360 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .319 — a .041 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Bubba Chandler is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under Hits
  Nick Gonzales has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under Total Bases
  Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.