Player Insights for Yankees vs Nationals – 7/11/26

New York Yankees

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Washington Nationals

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Among all starting pitchers, Cameron Schlittler’s fastball velocity of 97.2 mph ranks in the 95th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• The 10.1% Barrel% of the New York Yankees makes them the #1 offense in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Washington Nationals Insights

• PJ Poulin will “start” for Washington Nationals today but will serve in the role of an opener and may not pitch more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Dylan Crews is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+6.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-680)
  Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games at home (+17.20 Units / 191% ROI)