Player Trends for Guardians vs Marlins - Friday, July 10th, 2026

+100O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-120

Parker Messick – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Parker Messick has averaged 91.3 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 75th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
Steven Kwan has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
Gabriel Arias has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 4th-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
The Cleveland Guardians have 8 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Sandy Alcantara today.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Griffin Conine – Over/Under Total Bases
The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Griffin Conine can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Joe Mack, Heriberto Hernandez, Kyle Stowers).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

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