Betting Trends for Pirates vs Nationals Game – 7/3/26

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Washington Nationals

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Mitch Keller has relied on his slider 7.1% less often this season (25.9%) than he did last season (33%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Nick Gonzales has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a unit rank 10th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 8.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Foster Griffin – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Out of all SPs, Foster Griffin’s fastball velocity of 87.5 mph is in the 1st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jorbit Vivas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jorbit Vivas has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.3-mph dropping to 76-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 37% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Konnor Griffin – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Konnor Griffin has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+8.50 Units / 106% ROI)