
Milwaukee Brewers
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Cincinnati Reds
-145O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+120
(-110/-110)+120
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Shane Drohan – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)Compared to average, Shane Drohan has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -11.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)William Contreras has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.4-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineThe Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Rhett Lowder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)With 6 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Rhett Lowder will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Elly De La Cruz has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 away games (+7.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)Jake Bauers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+5.80 Units / 26% ROI)
