Player Stats for D-Backs vs Reds - June 14th, 2026

-115O/U: 10
(-110/-110)-105

Zac Gallen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
Zac Gallen’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (58.4% vs. 52.5% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+150/-195)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ketel Marte in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
Among all starters, Andrew Abbott’s fastball velocity of 92.1 mph grades out in the 17th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Compared to their .325 overall projected rate, the .313 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Cincinnati Reds projected offense in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount a bit watered down.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.55 Units / 44% ROI)
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)
Gabriel Moreno has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+14.00 Units / 233% ROI)

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