Read the Braves vs Mets Betting Guide – June 14, 2026

Atlanta Braves

@

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Bryce Elder has relied on his slider 6.6% less often this year (28.5%) than he did last season (35.1%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Sandy Leon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sandy Leon in the 0th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all starters, Freddy Peralta’s fastball spin rate of 2411 rpm grades out in the 77th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• MJ Melendez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  MJ Melendez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-120/-110)
  Juan Soto has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.09 Units / 46% ROI)